The Astonishing Rich Vein of Form Drives Aston Villa's Improbable Championship Bid
Just 60 days in the past when the young forward found himself on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery admonished him over missing a through-ball. During that period, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear if his performances were an indicator or a cause for the team's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, though, the sideline response proved to be much more joyous. After the England international swept in his second strike to restore his side's advantage, the boss ripped off his jacket, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The team were on their way to a 10th successive win , having failed to win their initial half-dozen games, find themselves only three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Hopefuls?
It remains an exceptionally difficult question to answer. The historical record, the perceived status of Villa, argues against it. Moreover, they have not been wholly dominant during this run, despite the fact the victories have accumulated.
According to statistical analysis, in only two games has the team had an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a side who have strung together a ten-match winning streak, Villa look curiously susceptible – but right now the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The current approach looks like to exchange chances with an opponent and then rely on their star man to bail them out with two crisp finishes. It happened against Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again against United.
His opener came from a superb shot, bent precisely inside the post from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, Manchester United managed more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all except one of those matches.
A statistical correction might be the greatest opponent the club have to face as the season progresses. Rogers, in all likelihood, will not continue to drilling his shots into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still find their top level.
- The main striker may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The winger may rediscover the force he showed during his peak.
- The defensive duo will eventually regain fitness, strengthening a sometimes shaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this was unforeseen. Few believed Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And certainly earlier this season, few could imagine the young forward by the end of the year would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like an essential Three Lions star.
This remarkable period must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner faced the home supporters at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he seemed to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.