Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
